For years, the Army National Guard has waited for the other shoe to drop. The inevitability of a downward recruiting and retention shift was expected as a result of the war on terror, and the Guard continues to adjust to these ever-changing external forces that drive it.

But the entire recruiting process is a balancing act, and like so many situations shaped by policy at the top, the real impact is determined by the performance and attention recruiting gets in the small towns and localities from which tomorrow's soldiers and airmen will come.

Talk to an Army Guard recruiter today, and world events dictate his or her job.

"We used to say, 'Get money for college; part-time commitment-veritable commitment was one of our greatest selling points-low risk; serve at home; go to college right now,'" says Lt. Col. Mike Jones, Army Guard recruiting chief in Washington, D.C. "The new model says, 'You will be deployed two years in the six-year window; we can't tell you exactly when; we'll give you a 60- to 90-day notice.'"

The Army Guard is different today. It falls somewhere between a part-time force and active duty, exacerbated by internal and external factors, Colonel Jones says.

"We're in a situation today where what DoD and Congress offer as a reward for Guard service is not commensurate with what the risk for being in the Guard and what that Guard service is going to entail," he says. "We have half the bonus authority of the active component, but [an] equal or a little bit higher chance to deploy."

External influences also make recruiting tougher.

A recent, and incorrect, story in USA Today said the Guard's casualty rate is substantially higher than other services. Even though the paper corrected the story the following day, the damage was done.

"It would take $10 million worth of advertising and six months to overcome that-a wrong article," he says. "And there's nothing we could do to control [a paper] running that."

An even bigger hurdle is that young men and women don't see the military as a stepping-stone to success, Colonel Jones says.

Numerous tuition assistance alternatives don't require risking life and limb like the Guard. In addition, the pushback from high schools is growing, and it increases in college.

"There are only 37 percent of college students [that] said they agreed with the war," Colonel Jones says. "It's hard to ask someone to volunteer for something that is a serving organization to go to a war that they don't believe in."

Additionally, more than 50 percent of peers-teachers, other students and parents-are less likely to recommend service. Antipathy toward service is highest among females and African-Americans, he says. No single influence is the antagonist, however.

"I would say a quarter of our challenge is policy driven-things that were relics of the Cold War," Colonel Jones says. "Three quarters of them are legislative."

Getting the Pentagon to change the culture is also sometimes difficult. "The institutional Army has not adapted yet to be a 'war light' type of organization," he says.

But beginning last October the Army Guard kicked off its American Soldier campaign to "reset the image and thought of what the product the Guard is today. "

"Before, we'd say [the Guard is] a reserve of the Army that had a dual mission that responded to the governor and the president, and people in the Guard traditionally serve one weekend a month, two weeks a year, and they're really kind of the backup for the Army strategically," Colonel Jones says.

But today, you've got a quarter of the Guard deployed, many for more than a year. When someone wants to start a new job, start a family or go to college, not knowing when a two-year deployment will happen with short notice, potential recruits lose interest.

As part of the campaign, the Guard started with more recruiters last month.

"We have added 1,400 new production recruiters, recent graduates-[that] hit the field in the month of February and [started] changing-I think reversing-some of the shortfall that we see right now," said Lt. Gen. H Steven Blum, Guard Bureau Chief, at a House Armed Services subcommittee heanng last month.

An individual state's need and force structure determine the dispersal of recruiters among the 54 states and territories.

Early indications are that the approach is paving off.

"Recent changes in the enlistment and reenlistment bonuses made possible by this Congress have resulted in a 100-percent increase in [January] in re-enlistments," General Blum said. "And that's in only the first 30 days of the implementation of those bonuses that you so generously afforded us."

But incentives sometimes don't go far enough. At the same hearing, Lt. Gen. Roger Schultz, Army Guard director, lamented the $50-per-month enlisted affiliation bonus for Guardsmen on active duty.

"That comes short of the mark, in my mind," General Schultz said. "And we need [Congress'] help, [and] consideration as soon as the '06 budget comes before the committee."

Amid these challenges, Colonel Jones says, the Army Guard must generate more than 500,000 leads, which will become about 250,000 actual appointments, and then 140,000 applicants will get 63,000 sessions with a recruiter this year alone.

To reach that goal, the National Guard Bureau puts a heavy emphasis on advertising.

The number one approach is direct mail to high school students. Referrals from other Guardsmen bring in the second largest number of leads.

"People are very suspicious of advertising today," Colonel Jones says. "But if my neighbor tells me about this lawn mower, I am more apt to listen to my neighbor's experience than I am to the Toro ad or to some literature I get in the mail."

The most visible and still a highly effective campaign is the NASCAR sponsorship, a car driven by Greg Biffle (right).

"If everything was doing as good as NASCAR as far as return on investment, we would be doing much better," Colonel Jones says.

Several other opportunities have emerged from the NASCAR sponsorship. Jackson Hewitt Tax Service (also a Guard car sponsor) has put 3,500 displays in its stores and puts a Guard education guide in the hands of anyone between the ages of 19 and 35.

The Guard is also a driving force behind NASCAR's Drive for Diversity program.

"We are one of six companies that have a minority driver, the only African-American male driver in the sport that's running on the series lower-working their way to grow up in the farm leagues, up to the major level," Colonel Jones says.

But all their eggs aren't in one basket.

Whereas NASCAR might appeal to one demographic, often those from more rural backgrounds, sponsorship through the Hoop-it-Up three-on-three basketball tournaments appeals to urbanites.

But the decision making process for a potential recruit is ripe with drawbacks that Guard recruiters must overcome.

"We're really not an all-volunteer force; we're an all-recruited force," Colonel Jones says. "But 44,000 of our fellow soldiers are kept beyond their [end time in service] involuntarily."

Because of the stop-loss order, many will leave immediately when their time is complete.

When in the 1990s the active-component Army went from about 780,000 to today's 480,000 number, offering many early separation, Guard recruiters made their living on walk-ins, he says. Prior-service and non-prior service recruits were an even split until about 1999.

"We became reliant on a prior-service market that almost within 12 months dried up," Colonel Jones says.

Last year, the Guard needed 7,000 active-duty recruits and got only about 3,400.

With stop-loss, active-component personnel, who might miss everything from a wedding to the start of college with their extended deployments, often don't want to join the Guard because the chances to re-deploy are too high.

"You know that they're either going to go, they're just getting back, or they're getting ready to go," he says.

Re-tooling for the non-prior service market isn't impossible, despite the hurdles. Even in tougher recruiting times, half the states are successful.

"[In] the states that are the best at making strength right now, the adjutant general makes it a priority, and he makes the commanders make it a priority," Colonel Jones says. "The person that that responsibility falls on top of is the recruiting and retention commander."

But the individual recruiter must do the real convincing.

"We've counseled our recruiters that you've got to be totally upfront and honest with parents and kids [who] ask today, 'What are the real chances of me going?'" he says. "The answer used to be 'maybe;' after 9/11 it was 'some are going;' and then it was 'majority won't go;' now it's 'the majority will go, and you most likely will go.'"

Recruiters also will err on the side of too much caution.

"It's better to tell a soldier they are going and then not have to send them than to tell them you probably won't go and then have to send them," Colonel Jones says.

Benefits used to be the selling point-money for college, see the world-but they're now a closing point. At the same time, he says, prospective recruits want to know what's in it for them, particularly if they choose to sacrifice their time and possibly their lives.

Although the new recruiting approach is too young to determine its impact, the Guard had to step up and address some disheartening trends before they got worse for all services.

"We're like the canary in the coal mine," Colonel Jones says. "We're the closest to the community, things will hit us earlierboth in a positive and negative way."

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