3 - ECONOMICS AS METAPHOR

Anonymous
Growth Strategies

Jul 31, 2008 20:00 EDT

Although markets are volatile and segments of the country are having a hard time, the national output is up, not down, this year. How has the economy pulled this off? Is there something the pessimists were missing?

The answer is yes, writes David Ranson, head of research at H.C. Wainwright Economics: People tend to anthropomorphize the world around them, and not just in economics. We look at the outside world and assume that it is governed in the same way as our own lives.

The same parochial streak in human nature is rife in economic commentary. In the context of a household or a business, debt is a burden and can become a threat. But for society as a whole, debt finance is a prime means of capitalizing production and growth.

It's extraordinary, then, writes Ranson, that in national debate the narrow view drowns out the broad. Aggregate private debt and trade deficits are widely regarded with equal suspicion and fear - even by "experts." Instead of celebrating the role that private debt has played in creating prosperity, many blame "excessive" debt when things go wrong, and cite it as a basis for pessimism.

At the micro level, the failure of an institution is often a disaster to those with a personal stake. But from an overall perspective, when one institution becomes insolvent, another can be relied on to pick up its functions.

Again, it's the localized human costs that exercise the political imagination. The benefits of systemic adaptability are taken for granted. Government responds to constituencies and takes great pains to preserve the existing institutional structure, sometimes guaranteeing or bailing out failing firms. It's widely assumed that a large enough wave of bankruptcies will bring the economy down. Little or no credit is given to the ability of the economic system to heal itself and find its way back to vitality.

What's excessive now is fear, not debt: Fears of insolvency and private-sector indebtedness are misplaced and harmful. They place obstacles in the way of ill-used capital that seeks to move toward safer and more profitable employment. They plunge the stock market into turbulence. They push government into hasty actions that intrude more aggressively into private choices and decisions. They undercut the market-price system, without which the economy cannot allocate resources productively. Last but not least, these fears trigger the proverbial false alarm in a crowded theater, sending everyone stampeding for the exits.

A natural system has built-in redundancy. It manages and heals itself. The economic system is no exception. Failure to recognize this endangers the mental health of our society. We create a far bigger tragedy when we lose heart, change the rules of the game, or act recklessly with quick fixes. We are not a nation of whiners, but we do have a lot of alarmists. It is becoming politically incorrect to suggest that the economy is basically sound.

Economists have a professional duty to transmit the more broad-minded vision of the world that their discipline reveals. A more objective diagnosis is especially needed during an election year, in which many unfounded fears are broadcast and amplified by the media.

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Source: Growth Strategies