What a long, strange election campaign is this. It always promised to be unusual, being the first time since 1928 in which neither an incumbent president nor vice president was running for their party's nomination, but unanticipated twists and turns have added to the drama. So is it an exceptional election (an "outliner" or "one-off), or is it still shaped by social, demographic, economic, geographic and cultural trends (which we can discern, understand, and use to foresee) ?

The American Enterprise Institute and Brookings Institution recently held a conference which approached the subject ("The Future of Red, Blue and Purple America"). Among the findings of the papers presented:

* Almost all US population growth between now and 2050 will take place in metropolitan areas, especially inner and mature suburbs. While urban cores remain solidly Democratic and exurbs and emerging suburbs remain strongly Republican, the fast-growing "urbanized suburbs" are trending strongly toward the Democrats. [Robert Lang, Virginia Tech, "The New Suburban Politics"]

* Americans increasingly tend to live near people with similar cultural and political affinities. The number of counties dominated by a single party has increased dramatically over the past 40 years, creating "landslide communities." This effect is perfectly natural, and the differences it creates are unlikely to be transcended. [Bill Bishop, "The Big Sort: Migration, Community, and Politics in the United States of 'Those People']

* The United States is steadily moving from being majority white to greater diversity As it happens, the key battlegrounds of the 2008 elections will be the fast-growing swing states, which are experiencing rapid immigration. But Hispanic and Asian population growth is not fully represented in election results because so many of these immigrants are either under the age of 18 or are not citizens. [William Frey, Brookings Institution, "Race, Immigration and America's Changing Electorate"]

* The white working class - once a mainstay of Democrats - has shrunk by 31 percentage points since 1940, and as it has declined, so has its Democratic tilt. Because several swing states have high concentrations of white working class voters, this group will be very important in the 2008 elections. [Ruy Teixeira, Brookings Institution, and Alan Abramowitz, Emory University, "The Decline of the White Working Class and Other Changes in American Class Structure"]

* Nontraditional family structures are growing. Married voters traditionally lean Republican and vote more than others, but as their proportion dips and values become more liberal, the Republican advantage will erode. [Tom Smith, University of Chicago, "Changes in Family Structure, Family Values and Politics, 1972-2006"]

* Religious trends are complex. Democrats retain the strong support of the unaffiliated, and Republicans the support from white evangelical Christians. But party preference frequently correlates with degrees of observance rather than denomination. [John Green, Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, "Religion and American Politics: More Secular, More Evangelical, or Both?"]

* Changing family structures (especially increases in divorce) have helped to shape the outlook of the "millennial" generation, those born since 1977. They have social, economic and political views that lean toward the Democratic Party (more liberal on issues like immigration, gay marriage and big government), but they are also more entrepreneurial and individualistic (favoring private Social Security accounts, for example, and opposing abortion on demand in greater numbers than any other generation born since 1930). Thus there is opportunity here for Republicans as well. [Scott Keeter, Pew Research Center, "The Aging of the Boomers and the Rise of the Millennials"]

The trends examined here, when broken down into familiar terms, have all been covered extensively in these pages over the years and are familiar to long-time readers:

* Suburbia (and now including exurbia) as the places where most Americans live and work

* The social, economic, cultural and geographic clustering of America

* The rise of racial, ethnic, and national-origin diversity

* The continuing primacy (and changing nature) of the middle class

* The redefinition of mainstream family structure in America (the decline in marriedcouple households with children and the rise of singles)

* The continuing relevance and importance of religion and belief

* The aging of the baby boomers and the rise of the millennials, the largest generation in American history.

So, then, do any of these findings, taken singly or together, allow a confident prediction about this year's election results?

Sorry, I seem to have run out of space.

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