Mirroring an overall difficult month for the national economy, consumer confidence in upstate New York fell 2.5 points to 49.5 in October, according to the latest monthly survey from the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI).

The 49.5 figure is the overall confidence level of upstate New York respondents. The SRI survey measures current and future consumer confidence, which combined provides the overall confidence level.

Upstate's current confidence level is 47.4, down 5.3 points from October. The future confidence reading is 50.9 points, a decrease of 0.7 points, according to SRI.

Statewide, overall consumer confidence decreased 4.7 points to 51.6, a new record low, according to Douglas Lonnstrom, Ph.D., professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI's founding director.

"Five points is a fairly dramatic drop, particularly when you're already at the bottom," says Lonnstrom.

New York's consumer confidence level is six points below the nation's confidence reading of 57.6, which tumbled 12.7 points from September, as measured by the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index.

The sharp decline in gas prices is providing some relief to consumers, Lonnstrom says, figuring it might explain why consumer confidence in New York didn't fall by double digits, like the national confidence level.

"Instead of putting $50 in the tank, they're putting in $30 and that's even helping with food prices because now they've got $20 to spend on something else," says Lonnstrom.

Index numbers for overall, current, and future consumer confidence were down among all demographics surveyed in New York, including by gender, age, party affiliation, income level, and geography, the SRI survey found.

The other good news, quips Lonnstrom, is that October is over, noting the month has historically not been a good one on Wall Street. He notes the crash of 1929, the meltdown of 1987, and the huge sell-offs following this fall's $700 billion federal government rescue package all occurred in October.

"People, of course, are getting their 401(k) reports and they're calling them 201(k)s because they're worth about half as much," he says.

Between the unemployment numbers, retail sales figures, and the housing market, the economy hasn't had a lot of good news in the last month, says Lonnstrom.

The SRI survey also indicates that in October, consumers buying plans fell 0.8 points to 7.9 percent for cars and trucks, down 3.1 points to 7.4 percent for computers, down 0.8 points to 12.7 percent for furniture, down 1 point to 2.4 percent for homes, and down 2 points to 12.6 percent for major home improvements.

In addition, about 60 percent of those interviewed say current gasoline prices are still having a serious or somewhat serious impact on their financial condition, down from 66 percent last month.

At the same time, 69 percent of New York consumers say the amount spent on groceries is having a very serious or somewhat serious impact on their finances. About half of those surveyed say both gas and food prices are having a very serious or somewhat serious impact on their expenses.

In upstate New York, the percentage of respondents indicating problems paying for gas and food has been falling since August. When SRI starting analyzing the trend in June, 75 percent of respondents in upstate New York said gas prices were having a serious impact on their finances. In October, perhaps reflecting the lower prices at the pump, just 66 percent indicated the same serious impact.

For buying groceries, 69 percent of upstate respondents indicated food prices had a serious impact on their finances in October, the same percentage that was reported in the first analysis in June. The amount of upstate respondents indicating difficulty peaked at 80 percent in July.

The SRI survey was conducted in October 2008 by random telephone calls to 963 New York residents over the age of 18. As consumer confidence is expressed as an index number developed after statistical calculations to a series of questions, "margin of error" does not apply.

The SRI survey has established a consumer-confidence index number for New York State consumers each month since January 1999. The index allows a direct comparison of New Yorkers to all Americans, as surveyed by the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index.

© 2008 Central New York Business Journal Provided by ProQuest LLC. All Rights Reserved.